They’re Calling the April Labor Numbers “a Standstill” but Emerging Trends Make Recruiters All the More Critical

They’re Calling the April Labor Numbers “a Standstill” but Emerging Trends Make Recruiters All the More Critical

April showed stagnant hiring in general with a few bright spots in some sectors like healthcare. Hospitality stayed flat—we’re seeing that at Patrice &Associates. In Canada, the picture was similar. Employment rose in April, and unemployment remained unchanged. These U.S. numbers are precisely what the Fed wants to see before it starts cutting rates. If the labor numbers show an economic cooling, rates will go down.

CCG: What did the April jobs report reveal?

Miller: According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.9%. Healthcare, social assistance, transportation, and warehousing, however, posted notable gains during a month characterized as “a standstill” in employment. To our north, Canadian employment rose by41,000(+0.2%) in April, all in part-timework. The unemployment rate was5.0% in April, which hasn’t budged since December 2022.

CCG: There was still an increase in U.S. employment, so why is it characterized as a standstill?

Miller: While the uptick in employment is real, it’s “a standstill” because the April labor market posted fewer new jobs than expected. Guy Berger, an Economist at The Burning Glass Institute, suggests that the modest job gains, and unchanged 3.9%unemployment rate reflect an easing. This easing of the labor market, an indicator, is probably not yet enough for the Fed to initiate earlier interest rate cuts. It’s in the general direction they want to see.

CCG: Is this slow down an indicator that companies have fewer job openings than they did in previous months?

Miller:

That’s part of it. But the other part of it is workers aren’t quitting, and they’re not being laid off. We’re seeing what economists, including Berger, now call “The Great Stay.” The new term describes the trend of workers remaining in their current jobs amidst economic uncertainties. This is absolutely going on, which makes having a recruiting company on your side to fill your open jobs more important. People are not jumping from job to job, so hiring a recruiter to help you show top candidates the benefits of a job change is more crucial.

CCG: We’ve talked before about the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), so how is that factoring in now that the pace of hiring has slowed, and unemployment is steady?

Miller:

The LFPR at 62.70% in April, shows a continued decline in the number of people who are in the employable labor force. The long-term average is 62.84% so it is still a factor impacting businesses. As Johnny C. Taylor, Jr., president, and CEO of the Society for Human Resources Management (SHRM), explains, demographic shifts particularly with Baby Boomers exiting the workforce and declining fertility rates are making a big impact. Employers are going to have to accommodate this changing picture of our workforce.

CCG: Are there any trends or insights emerging to accommodate this, or is it too early to tell?

Miller:

Absolutely, trends are emerging. On the April 26 th edition of “The Today Show,” Taylor boldly predicted that people aged 75 and older as the fastest-growing segment of U.S. workers for the next decade. Why? He cites the Great Resignation of2021, which, prompted by the pandemic, led to a loss of generational expertise. During that time, organizations lost a layer of leadership for good. Now, they are scrambling to hire, train, and prepare the next generation. So seasoned, experienced workers are in demand. We are absolutely seeing the increased need for executive talent with our Patrice & Associates clients.

CCG: Are there any other trends that companies should prepare for or manage?

Miller:

Yes, another trend NBC recently reported is a hiring is shifting toward trade and skilled labor. While traditional white-collar hiring is slowing, demand for skilled labor is absolutely increasing. At Patrice & Associates we’re seeing fewer and fewer people in manufacturing, out of a job and looking for work. Healthcare is also showing no signs of slowing. Our aging population once again!